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Weather Musings for 2022

January 28, 2022 by Chris Smallcomb Leave a Comment

By Chris Smallcomb, NWS Reno Meteorologist and DPMR Member

Winter 2021-22 Has Been One of Big Peaks and Valleys…

…much like many of our favorite races. Ha ha. Hey everyone! So, as I write this, watching Peavine melt off snow steadily on the southern aspects already, our winter seems to have gone into hibernation. Is this our fate for the rest of winter? What does this mean for our running season?

Well, after one of the hottest and smokiest summers on record, winter showed up bigtime in late October with one of the most intense atmospheric rivers I have seen in nearly 15 years at NWS Reno. It actually set records for the amount of moisture and wind energy, how AR’s are measured, for so early in the winter storm season. The Reno airport received nearly 3 inches of rain as the rain shadow was non-existent, which amounts to 40% of the average annual precipitation total in just one storm! There was enough rain that some of it found a way through my chimney and into the house. Our long-standing station at Boca Reservoir near Truckee received 5.4” of rainfall, the 8th highest two-day total dating back to 1906, and the highest two-day amount in any October, November, or December. Lake Tahoe rose nearly half a foot, only the 8th time in 121 years that’s happened in October. Again, a massive storm any time of year, but especially so early in the storm season!

A pic I took while driving through the Carson Valley just a day after our major atmospheric river.

So we were off to a grand start. The soils moistened up, the smoke was truly gone, and everything seemed to have more life about it. Regardless of how the rest of winter pans out, this one wet storm set the stage for much more efficient snowmelt runoff this coming spring and summer – more water into our streams, lakes, and running flasks, and less into a parched ground. I remember running the TRT in early June last year, and running out of water as everything was so dry – that shouldn’t be the case this year.

My thoughts on the matter come late November!

After a dry and mild November, which isn’t terribly unusual even in big winters like 2016-17, December roared back to life with multiple large winter storms. These storms were colder than the October ones so our snowpack and friends in the ski community benefited tremendously. Probably the most striking statistic, of many, is that the Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Pass saw it’s 3rd snowiest month of any month dating back to 1980. That’s only behind monster months of January 2017 and February 2019! Snowpack in the Truckee and Tahoe areas went from 50% of normal ahead of the December storms to 200-300% of normal in just a few weeks. This of course resulted in avalanche concerns and prolonged closures on our roadways. So at that point around New Years I think many of us were looking for a break, but perhaps not this long of a break.

It wasn’t just big snow we were contending with in December 2021. The winds were pretty extreme too!

While it’s not unusual to see multi-week breaks in storms mid-winter, January 2022 has been rather prolonged with not even low-end storms to mix things up a bit. As of this writing, our dry streak at Reno is 30 days. While that sounds like a lot, the record mid-winter dry spell is 56 days during the 2011-12 winter. At this rate, Reno could feasibly not see a single raindrop or snow flake all month, something never seen for January dating back to 1893. Tahoe City will likely be in the top-5 driest Januaries at this rate. To contrast the measly 0.17” of precipitation at Tahoe City this January, the same month during our massive 2017 winter saw 21.33”, or 125 times more.

So, what’s the outlook? As of this writing, the fight for storms does not go well. Most of our models are projecting a ridge of high pressure off the west coast for the first two weeks of February that will essentially block large, moisture-laden storms from the Sierra. This pattern does tend to favor cooler, drier inland “slider” storms but those do not produce big snows. Looking further out into the 3-4 week time horizon into the 2nd half of February, called the sub-seasonal forecast, honestly I’m not optimistic about big storm potential there either as models favor the current pattern remaining. But atmospheric predictability in this timeframe does go down quite a bit, so that allows for perhaps some hope. Generally we can start to see major storm patterns take shape in our models about 2 weeks out, maybe 3 if we’re lucky, but even then it’s a big picture hand-waving type of outlook.

Into March and April, there is no clear signal and honestly our models tend to struggle at these lead times especially for the Sierra. So really any scenario is on the table at this point as we head spring. We’ve had some March produce significant precipitation in recent years, most recently 2020 just as the pandemic was taking off. The latest sub-seasonal models are indeed hinting at a trend towards wet in early March, so we’ll see how that pans out.

Official seasonal outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for March through May. Equal Chances basically means any scenario is on the table – wet, dry, or normal.

One interesting experiment we can do is use past data to project possible scenarios going forward. The plot below shows the average snow water content (SWE) for the Truckee River basin, from NRCS.

The black line shows the observed SWE for this winter so far. The shading shows percentiles based on past years back to the early and mid 1980’s, and the lime green line is the median SWE trace. What I also did here is plotted three future traces showing what would happen if the remainder of winter behaved like a couple possible extreme scenarios:

  • 2019 (purple) – a massive 2nd half of winter – remember that February and the cold prolonged spring snowpack!? I guess at this rate this scenario seems a lot less likely…
  • 2020 (yellow) – a big March into early April – which would lead us to near or just above normal median peak snowpack
  • 2013 (dark green) – the winter leading into that severe drought where the atmosphere basically shut off after the New Year.

Even in the latter scenario our SWE this year would end up roughly 80% of normal, but you’ll also notice the much earlier than normal melt-off which would have ramifications for fire season onset time and backcountry water availability during the summer.

Overall, based on past years, we have about a 70% chance of hitting at least the normal median peak SWE in the Truckee and Tahoe region – and honestly all it takes is one or two large storms to do the trick. In summary…

Regardless of the long-range weather outlook, a few things we can glean based on the weather we’ve seen so far:

  • Flood Risk: At this point our risk of flooding remains elevated. We have an appreciable snowpack and the soils remain quite moist relative to normal. So if we were to have a major atmospheric river that’s on the warmer and rainier end of the spectrum, flooding would be a big concern for us. Typically we look for rain-snow line elevations above 8,000 feet for those flood scenarios along the Truckee River basin. Thankfully right now we’re not seeing that scenario for at least 2+ weeks.
  • Fire Season: Assuming we have a “normal” end to winter and into spring, right now the odds favor a lower (though not zero) risk of massive fires in the Sierra, compared to 2020 and 2021, but a busier fire season in the Great Basin including around Reno and Carson City. Typically fires in Nevada are driven by grasses and shrubs which tend to grow well in wet years such as this. The good snowpack and wet ground should help increase vegetation moistures in the Sierra this year, but big wildcards that could counter that include 1) large areas of drought-stressed or dead trees, 2) a warm/dry spring with a very early melt out of snow.
  • Running Season: So again, assuming a “normal” balance of winter and into spring, I think we can expect snow along our trails later into the spring and early summer compared to the last couple years, so be prepared for that. That will most definitely depend on spring temperatures and precipitation! I also think we’ll see more readily available water from streams and ponds for adventures in the backcountry, at least into early to mid summer – due to more efficient runoff from snowpack. April through July streamflow forecasts on the Truckee & Carson Rivers are running 90-120% of median right now, which can be a good surrogate for water flows on streams and into ponds. To compare, last year’s anemic values were 20-35% of median flows.

    Regarding upcoming races – my gut feeling is that we’ll see higher elevation snow fields for races like Broken Arrow, Western States, and Tahoe 200. Had you asked me this at the end of December – I’d have said “slam dunk yes” to snow on those courses in June – but our super dry January and latest February models has upset that confidence a little. TRTER – not sure on that one depends on how big the rest of winter is. In the super snowy and cold 2019, we saw appreciable snow fields on that course even in mid-July, but I’d say at this rate barring a “Miracle March” odds favor most of the course being dry. 
  • Wildflowers: This one is a bit outside my professional lane but I have some speculations here. In the past I’ve seen that wet autumns translate into really good desert wildflower seasons. The famous Death Valley superbloom in early 2016 was the result of a very wet series of fall rain events. Something about the long dormant seeds getting “activated” by the heavy rainfall. So perhaps there’s hope of some great purples and pinks and more for Silver State 50/50.

That’s what I’ve got. Hope you got a few nuggets out of that stream of consciousness. By all means feel free to ping me for weather info ahead of a race or adventure – @nvsunriserunner on Instagram, Chris Smallcomb on Strava, or chris.smallcomb@noaa.gov via email.

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2023 Pt. Mariah Trail Marathon

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Join us on Aug 5, 2023!
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Oct
3
Tue
6:00 pm DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout... @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout... @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
Oct 3 @ 6:00 pm – 7:15 pm
DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout @ Alibi Public House, Truckee @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
Keep an eye on Facebook for updates and cancellation due to weather.  Photo credit: Steve Woo These runs will depart from the Trout Creek Pocket Park, northwest corner of Bridge and Jiboom St (at the[...]
Oct
5
Thu
5:30 pm Evening Speed-work with Martin @ Coldstream Canyon Truckee
Evening Speed-work with Martin @ Coldstream Canyon Truckee
Oct 5 @ 5:30 pm – 6:30 pm
Evening Speed-work with Martin @ Coldstream Canyon Truckee
Join us for for Thursday evening speedwork for runner’s of all levels in Coldstream Canyon, Truckee. Run starts at 6pm.  Workout will be about an hour and can be adjusted to your level. Keep an[...]
Oct
10
Tue
6:00 pm DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout... @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout... @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
Oct 10 @ 6:00 pm – 7:15 pm
DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout @ Alibi Public House, Truckee @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
Keep an eye on Facebook for updates and cancellation due to weather.  Photo credit: Steve Woo These runs will depart from the Trout Creek Pocket Park, northwest corner of Bridge and Jiboom St (at the[...]
Oct
12
Thu
5:30 pm Evening Speed-work with Martin @ Coldstream Canyon Truckee
Evening Speed-work with Martin @ Coldstream Canyon Truckee
Oct 12 @ 5:30 pm – 6:30 pm
Evening Speed-work with Martin @ Coldstream Canyon Truckee
Join us for for Thursday evening speedwork for runner’s of all levels in Coldstream Canyon, Truckee. Run starts at 6pm.  Workout will be about an hour and can be adjusted to your level. Keep an[...]
Oct
17
Tue
6:00 pm DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout... @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout... @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
Oct 17 @ 6:00 pm – 7:15 pm
DPMR Weekly Social Run & Hangout @ Alibi Public House, Truckee @ Trout Creek Pocket Park
Keep an eye on Facebook for updates and cancellation due to weather.  Photo credit: Steve Woo These runs will depart from the Trout Creek Pocket Park, northwest corner of Bridge and Jiboom St (at the[...]
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dpmrunners

Join @healdsburgrunningcompany for a run (and plen Join @healdsburgrunningcompany for a run (and plenty of fun)!

📍 : @donnerskiranch 
⏰ : Saturday September 16th, 8am
🏃‍♀️ 🏃‍♂️ : Judah Loop and continue on the PCT.
Run the Judah loop for ~6 miles, continue to Anderson peak for ~13miles (or further on the PCT if you want to go longer)
🗺️ : https://www.strava.com/routes/3135724872218937730
🎉 : Rejoin at the Donner Ski Ranch Old 40 Bar & Grill after the run (and there may be some sweeeeet giveaways...).
🙋‍♀️ : The Judah Loop is a trail adopted and actively maintained by DPMR as part of @truckeetrails' Adopt a Trail program

#unafraid #trailrunning #runningcommunity #runninglife #runningmotivation #donnerpartymountainrunners #tahoe #tahoerunners #mountainrunners #DPMR #TruckeeTahoeTrailRunning #WeRunTrails #ultrarunning #lakesonoma #lakesonoma100k
Who's psyched for the Pt Mariah Trail Marathon TOM Who's psyched for the Pt Mariah Trail Marathon TOMORROW?!! DPMR is so excited to bring you this second edition of the race that promises to be bigger and better than last year! RD Chris Cloyd and team have been working so hard all week with final prep. The course is in great shape with some beautiful fun flowy singletrack. He said he'd love a few more volunteers so checkout the signup genius on our volunteer page, but otherwise wants everyone to please come hang out, cheer, and join the party! 
Unique to this race is the 5 segment course that utilizes a central aid station and can be done as a 2 person or 5 person relay, in addition to challenging yourself to run the whole thing solo!
Registration is still OPEN in person until 6pm tonight with bib pick-up at @tahoemountainsports with reg remaining open online til 1159pm. Race day bib pickup available in the morning 6-730am. No Race Day Reg. 

Thanks to our amazing sponsors this year, every participant will be eligible for a prize giveaway and get a pair of @darntoughvermont socks and @drinklmnt hydration.

#unafraid #trailrunning #runningcommunity #runninglife #runningmotivation #donnerpartymountainrunners #tahoe #tahoerunners #mountainrunners #DPMR #TruckeeTahoeTrailRunning #WeRunTrails #ultrarunning #trailmarathon #trailrace #pointmariah #pointmariahtrailmarathon
Hey DPMRers!  We’ve got something special in th Hey DPMRers!  We’ve got something special in the works.  We’ve been collaborating with Alibi Ale Works to release a co-branded beer (YES!).   Join us for a social run next Tuesday, where we'll have the pleasure of running alongside Alibi's head brewer, Matt Garcia! We'll hit the trails together, and afterward, we'll gather at Alibi to brainstorm the perfect brew that represents our club.  And since the DPMR Pt. Mariah Trail Marathon is just around the corner, we're adding some extra fun to the mix. We'll also be assembling course markings during the event. It's going to be an unforgettable night! Hope to see you there!
🏃‍♀️🏃‍♂️ Calling All Running Ent 🏃‍♀️🏃‍♂️ Calling All Running Enthusiasts! Join Us in Supporting the DPMR Pt. Mariah Trail Marathon! 🏃‍♀️🏃‍♂️
The Pt. Mariah Trail Marathon is just around the corner, and we need YOUR help to make it a roaring success! 🌟 This incredible event brings together the running community and showcases the determination and passion of athletes from all walks of life. Now, we are seeking volunteers to be an essential part of this memorable experience!
📅 Event Date: August 5th
⏰ Volunteer Dates: Several different shifts available from August 2nd - August 6th
🤝 We firmly believe that it takes a village to organize events like these, and YOU can be a crucial part of this vibrant community effort! No prior experience is required—just bring your enthusiastic spirit, and we'll guide you every step of the way.
📍 Positions Available:
1️⃣ Course Marking: Help ensure that the runners stay on track and have a smooth route to follow.
2️⃣ Finish Line Support: Cheer on our amazing athletes as they cross the finish line and celebrate their achievements.
3️⃣ Course Marshals: Guide and assist participants at key points along the trail, offering encouragement and direction.
4️⃣ Timing Assistance: Play a vital role in accurately recording race times and ensuring accurate results.
... and more! There are plenty of opportunities to contribute to the success of the marathon.
🌟 Not only will you have a fantastic time being part of this incredible event, but you'll also have the chance to bond with fellow running enthusiasts, make new friends, and create lasting memories.
💪 Together, let's show the world the power of community and support in making this marathon an unforgettable experience for everyone involved!
And remember, volunteering for a full shift earns you Volunt(HERO) credit towards the drawing for a YEAR OF FREE RACING (up to $1000) from DPMR!
Sign up here for a volunteer shift today! Link in bio.
Thanks to everyone who came out and volunteered at Thanks to everyone who came out and volunteered at the Diamond Peak aid station this weekend at the Tahoe Rim Trail Endurance Runs.  Everyone out on the course really appreciated all of the support!!! Stay tuned, we will be posting the Volunt(hero) leaderboard soon!  In the meantime, we're seeking more incredible volunteers to join our team at the upcoming Pt. Mariah trail marathon, and we promise it'll be an experience you won't forget! 😄
Sign up today! No experience needed. Link in bio.
The heat is on! Our Volunt(hero) program is going The heat is on! Our Volunt(hero) program is going strong with more than 60 volunteers out helping runners get through our various aid stations this year. What is the Volunt(hero) program? The top 10 DPMR volunteers with the most hours logged in 2023 will be entered into a drawing for a chance to win free race entries for a year, up to $1000. We will be posting our leaderboard soon but only a few hours separate those at the top.  Adding a shift can catapult you in to one of the coveted top 10 spots to be included in the raffle.  So come and join us THIS WEEKEND out at TRT! There are still openings overnight, morning clean up Sunday, and sweeps for TRT (Double points for morning clean up).
All volunteers that work at least one 6 hour shift will be entered in to our lottery for a race entry in to the 2024 TRTER race. You get one entry for each 6 hour shift you work. Overnight shifts get a bonus with two entries! Winners of the lottery can choose the distance but 100 milers still must have a qualifying race.
And remember, volunteering for a full shift earns you Volunt(HERO) credit towards the drawing for a YEAR OF FREE RACING (up to $1000) from DPMR! 🔥🔥🔥
Sign up here for a volunteer shift today! 🙏🏻 Link in bio for more info!
Meet DPMR Board President, Diane Frederic! Diane h Meet DPMR Board President, Diane Frederic! Diane has been a DPMR member since the inaugural year (2014).  She has been a board member for 5 years with the last 3 at the helm. Diane loves a good joke and believes life is a whole lot better if you don’t take things too seriously.  She also believes that trail time is best shared with dogs and friends. And friends with dogs.  Diane is a recovering graphic designer but will come out of retirement for a good race logo opportunity (thank the cosmic forces for that!). Diane will be out on the course for the TRT100 next weekend - so if you see her out there, give her a big hello and high-five! Good luck Diane! #unafraid #dpmr #girlboss #100miler #paincave #yougotthis
Hey friends! DPMR is on the hunt for a trail-runni Hey friends! DPMR is on the hunt for a trail-running-obsessed artist extraordinaire to transform our boring old 3D foam sign for Pt. Mariah into a mind-blowing piece of art. Picture this: foam sculpture meets artistic genius equals immortalizing Pt. Mariah in your artistry.  The project consists of 30” letters, which are 4” thick, and spell Pt. Mariah.  The letters can be picked up in Truckee after Jul 3rd and need to be complete by August 3rd. This is a commissioned project with a budget of $500. 

Are you ready to unleash your creative beast? Then don't hesitate! Slide into our DMs faster than a trail runner chasing a PR. Don't miss out on this opportunity to create something truly legendary.
The Tahoe Rim Trail Endurance Runs are almost here The Tahoe Rim Trail Endurance Runs are almost here!!  Please consider volunteering with us.  We have many shifts available from Friday, July 14th through Sunday, July 16th! 
All volunteers that work at least one 6 hour shift will be entered in to our lottery for a race entry in to the 2024 TRTER race. You get one entry for each 6 hour shift you work. Overnight shifts get a bonus with two entries! Winners of the lottery can choose the distance but 100 milers still must have a qualifying race.
And remember, volunteering for a full shift earns you Volunt(HERO) credit towards the drawing for a YEAR OF FREE RACING (up to $1000) from DPMR! 🔥🔥🔥

Sign up here for a volunteer shift today! 🙏🏻
Link in bio for more information. 

P.S. If you are racing, let us know so we can cheer you on!!
What are you waiting for? Register today to take p What are you waiting for? Register today to take part in a unique, fun, multi-loop style course with five segments that tour different parts of the Royal Gorge land. Race solo, with a partner, or as a 5-person team!  There is something for everyone! Register today! Link in bio.
Congratulations to Courtney Dauwalter on absolutel Congratulations to Courtney Dauwalter on absolutely shattering the women’s course record at Western States 100 today! Such an inspiration to all. We know you are the GOAT but tell us the truth Courtney… is your secret weapon the DPMR pancakes?!?
Huge congrats to Tom Evans for his win at Western Huge congrats to Tom Evans for his win at Western States 100 just now. Incredible performance landing him the 4th fastest time in the history of the event!  Well done Tom!
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